The Big Story
Quick Take:
- Median home sale prices pulled back from June's twelve-month high, but at $434,100 they remain nearly 2% above where they stood a year ago.
- Inventory declined in July, slipping below year-ago levels for the first time in months, and new listings fell sharply from June.
- Existing home sales eased from June's pace but held slightly above last July, keeping demand roughly flat year over year.
Note: You can find the charts & graphs for the Big Story at the end of the following section.
*National Association of REALTORS® data is released two months behind, so we estimate the most recent month’s data when possible and appropriate.
The spring rally takes a breather, but prices are still ahead of last year
After five straight months of gains carried the median sale price to $442,800 in June, July brought the first pullback of the year. The median home sold for $434,100, a 1.96% decline from June, though still 1.97% higher than the $425,700 we saw in July of last year. A modest summer dip is not unusual, and the bigger picture is that prices have climbed roughly 9.9% since January's $395,000 trough. On the financing side, the 30-year mortgage rate eased slightly to 6.43% in July before jumping to 6.69% in August, its highest level since last summer and a meaningful move away from the 6% low we saw back in March. That combination of a slightly lower price and a slightly lower rate trimmed the median monthly P&I payment to $2,254 in July, down from $2,286 in June. The catch is that this figure is now essentially identical to the $2,253 buyers were paying a year ago, meaning the affordability advantage that lower rates delivered earlier in the year has been completely erased. With August rates moving higher, payments look likely to head back up.
Inventory turns lower, and new listings drop off fast
Inventory data runs one month ahead of the other figures, and it tells us the supply build that defined the first half of the year has reversed course. July inventory came in at 1,540,000 homes, a 1.91% decline from the 1,570,000 available in both May and June, and now 0.65% below the 1,550,000 we had at this time last year. That is a notable shift, because inventory had been running above year-ago levels through the spring. New listings reinforce the story.
Sellers brought 423,732 new listings to market in July, an 8.58% drop from June and 2.55% below last July's 434,816. Seasonality explains part of that decline, since listing activity typically peaks in late spring, but the year-over-year decrease suggests homeowners are becoming a bit more hesitant as rates push back toward 6.7%. Fewer new listings combined with steady sales activity means the pool of available homes is likely to keep thinning through the back half of the summer.
Sales cool off from June, but demand is holding its ground
Existing home sales registered 4,060,000 in July, down 1.69% from June's 4,130,000 and roughly 3% below May's 4,190,000 high for the year. On a year-over-year basis, however, sales are up 0.74% from last July's 4,030,000, which means demand is essentially holding steady rather than deteriorating. That is a reasonable outcome given what buyers are facing. Monthly payments are back to where they were a year ago, and the run of price appreciation from January through June asked buyers to stretch further with every passing month. What is encouraging is that sales have stayed in a fairly narrow band between 4,010,000 and 4,190,000 all year, showing a market that has found a floor even as financing costs have moved around. Also worth watching in the background: the Federal Reserve's mortgage-backed securities holdings continue to shrink, falling to $1.93 trillion in August from nearly $2.07 trillion last November, which removes a source of support for mortgage rates over time.
Tighter supply is helping sellers, but the national market still favors buyers
When determining whether a market is a buyers’ market or a sellers’ market, we look to the Months of Supply Inventory (MSI) metric. The state of California has historically averaged around three months of MSI, so any area with at or around three months of MSI is considered a balanced market. Any market that has lower than three months of MSI is considered a seller’s market, whereas markets with more than three months of MSI are considered buyers’ markets.
Nationally, 1,540,000 homes for sale against a sales pace of 4,060,000 homes per year works out to roughly 4.5 months of supply, which puts the country as a whole comfortably in buyers' market territory by California's three-month yardstick. That said, the trend is moving in sellers' favor. A year ago the same math produced closer to 4.6 months, and with inventory down 1.91% month over month, new listings down 8.58%, and sales holding above last year's level, supply is tightening rather than loosening. The counterweight is affordability: with the median P&I payment back at year-ago levels and August rates at 6.69%, demand could soften enough to keep the balance where it is. As always, real estate is a highly localized asset, which is why you should check out what's going on in your local market below in the Local Lowdown!
Big Story Data
The Local Lowdown
Quick Take:
- Single-family prices eased from their spring peaks but still finished July ahead of last year in both Alameda and Contra Costa counties.
- Inventory continues to run far below year-ago levels, down nearly 25% for single-family homes and about 8% for condos.
- Single-family homes are taking slightly longer to sell than a year ago, while Alameda County condos posted a dramatic improvement, moving in just 22 days.
- Single-family homes remain squarely in seller's market territory, while condos continue to favor buyers.
Note: You can find the charts/graphs for the Local Lowdown at the end of this section.
Summer cooling, but still ahead of last year
July delivered the seasonal step down that typically follows the spring selling season, though East Bay values are holding above where they stood a year ago. In Alameda County, the median single-family home sold for $1,270,000, a 1.60% increase on a year-over-year basis but a pullback from June's $1,320,000 and May's $1,390,000, which was the strongest reading in more than two years. Contra Costa County followed a similar path, with the median single-family home selling for $865,000, up 0.93% from last July after peaking at $920,000 in May.
The condo picture is more mixed. Alameda County condos came in at a median of $555,000, down 2.12% year over year and a notable drop from June's $600,000, which had been the highest mark since late 2025. Contra Costa County condos held up better, with the median at $482,000, a 4.22% gain compared to last July even as the figure slipped from June's $515,000. The broader takeaway is that condo pricing has stabilized in a range it has occupied for most of the past year, while single-family values continue to grind modestly higher.
Supply keeps shrinking even at the peak of the season
The most striking story in the East Bay right now is how little is available for sale. Single-family inventory closed July at 2,659 homes, a 24.70% decline from the 3,531 homes on the market last July, and down 6.08% from June's 2,831. Sellers are not rushing in either, with 1,888 new single-family listings hitting the market in July, 4.26% fewer than a year ago. For context, active single-family supply peaked at 3,666 homes in June 2025 and has not come close to that level since.
Condos are tighter as well, though less dramatically so. Active condo listings finished July at 996 units, down 7.78% year over year and off 6.13% from June's 1,061. Interestingly, new condo listings actually rose 5.24% from last July to 442, and 253 condos sold during the month, a 12.44% increase year over year. In other words, condo supply is falling because more units are trading, not because sellers have withdrawn. On the single-family side, 1,376 closed sales came in essentially flat with last July's 1,399, so the shrinking inventory there is genuinely a supply story.
Days on market tell two very different stories
Single-family homes are taking marginally longer to sell than they did last summer. The average Alameda County single-family listing sold in 15 days in July, up from 13 days a year ago and a two-day increase from June. Contra Costa County came in at 16 days, compared with 13 days last July. Both figures are still remarkably fast by any historical standard, and both remain well below the 30-day pace Contra Costa saw in January, so the modest slowdown reads as normal seasonal drift rather than a change in direction.
The condo market is where the real improvement showed up. Alameda County condos sold in an average of 22 days in July, a sharp 29.03% improvement from the 31 days recorded last July and a dramatic acceleration from June's 33 days. That is the fastest pace Alameda condos have posted in more than two years. Contra Costa County condos held steady at 30 days, unchanged from last July, though slower than June's 27 days. Combined with the jump in condo sales volume, the Alameda numbers suggest buyers are finally stepping back into the attached-housing market.
Single-family homes still belong to sellers, condos still belong to buyers
When determining whether a market is a buyers’ market or a sellers’ market, we look to the Months of Supply Inventory (MSI) metric. The state of California has historically averaged around three months of MSI, so any area with at or around three months of MSI is considered a balanced market. Any market that has lower than three months of MSI is considered a seller’s market, whereas markets with more than three months of MSI are considered buyers’ markets.
The East Bay single-family market remains firmly in seller's territory. Alameda County finished July with 1.9 months of supply, down 24.00% from 2.5 months a year ago, while Contra Costa County came in at 2.4 months, a 25.00% decline from 3.2 months last July. Both counties have been trending down since spring, and Contra Costa in particular has moved from the edge of balanced territory a year ago to a clear seller's market today. The condo market continues to sit on the other side of the ledger, with Alameda County at 4.4 months of supply and Contra Costa County at 4.2 months. Both figures are improvements from a year ago, when Alameda stood at 5.1 months and Contra Costa at 4.6 months, and both are down from their spring highs. Condo buyers still hold meaningful leverage, but that leverage has been slowly eroding all summer.
Local Lowdown Data
